INDUCING AND SUPPRESSING CONFLICT IN INTERACTIVE INTERNATIONAL DYADS

We examine whether the conditions affecting initial expressions of hostility are similar to those affecting militarized disputes, which are not only more serious but also represent subsequent stages in the conflict process. Using data on dyadic interactions covering the 1951-1992 period, we estimate two models, one designed to take into account selection effects and the other allowing for conjunctive causation. Both provide closer approximations to theoretical models of the conflict process, and both yield similar results. Overall, our findings correspond with Kant's understanding that all states are subject to the realist conditions of interstate competition that makes disputes likely, but that the liberal influences, where present, can constrain the escalation of such disputes to war. The investigation also provides support for our argument that the effects of various influences on the conflict process are nonmonotonic over the range of hostile state behavior. We find that geopolitical factors affecting the opportunity for conflict are relatively more important in earlier stages of the conflict process, when less information is available regarding acceptable settlements and the resolve of actors to achieve them, than in later stages. By contrast, the importance of factors affecting willingness -- democratic norms and institutions and economic interdependence -- increase as the conflict process unfolds because they facilitate the flow of information relevant to the ongoing dispute. Fortunately, militarized conflict between states is rare. Nevertheless, diplomatic and other forms of low-level interstate conflict surely are not rare and these have the potential to escalate to more violent forms of dispute -- so scholars and policymakers have great interest in the tools o..