Continuous-time hidden markov models for network performance evaluation

In this paper, we study the use of continuous-time hidden Markov models for network protocol and application performance evaluation. We develop an algorithm to infer the continuous-time hidden Markov model from a series of end-to-end delay and loss observations of probe packets. This model can then be used to simulate network environments for network performance evaluation. We validate the simulation method by a series of experiments both in ns and over the Internet. Our experimental results show that this simulation method can represent a wide range of real network scenarios. It is easy to use, accurate, and time efficient. I