Effects of Climate Change on CO2 Concentration and Efflux in a Humic Boreal Lake : A Modeling Study

Climate change may have notable impacts on carbon cycling in freshwater ecosystems, especially in the boreal zone. Higher atmospheric temperature and changes in annual discharge patterns and carbon loading from the catchment affect the thermal and biogeochemical conditions in a lake. We developed an extension of a one-dimensional process-based lake model MyLake for simulating carbon dioxide (CO2 ) dynamics of a boreal lake. We calibrated the model for Lake Kuivajarvi, a small humic boreal lake, for the years 2013-2014, using the extensive data available on carbon inflow and concentrations of water column CO2 and dissolved organic carbon. The lake is a constant source of CO2 to the atmosphere in the present climate. We studied the potential effects of climate change-induced warming on lake CO2 concentration and air-water flux using downscaled air temperature data from three recent-generation global climate models with two alternative representative concentration pathway forcing scenarios. Literature estimates were used for climate change impacts on the lake inflow. The scenario simulations showed a 20-35% increase in the CO2 flux from the lake to the atmosphere in the scenario period 2070-2099 compared to the control period 1980-2009. In addition, we estimated possible implications of different changes in terrestrial inorganic and organic carbon loadings to the lake. The scenarios with plausible increases of 10% and 20% in CO2 and dissolved organic carbon loadings, respectively, produced increases of 2.1-2.5% and 2.2-2.3% in the annual CO2 flux.Peer reviewe