A FORECASTING MODEL FOR INTERNET SECURITY ATTACKS

All sizes of enterprises and organizations in the Internet World face the plaguing problem of Internet Security. One of the biggest problems of Internet Security is getting personnel to report an attack or a suspected attack. Even large enterprises and organizations which have great resources at their disposal cannot get their personnel to accurately report more than 1 % of Internet Security attacks. Unfortunately, most enterprises rely on Internet Advisories to defend themselves from an attack which already occurred in another enterprise. Faced with the dilemma of budgeting to protect against Internet attacks, the CIO needs to have statistics to support their request for large sums to defend against Internet attacks. Without personnel reporting a majority of Internet attacks or suspected attacks, the CIO can only make decisions based on a small amount of data gathered from the Internet attacks that personnel did report. This paper presents a forecasting model for Internet attacks which CIOs can use to quantify their Internet Security budget based on a forecasted number of Internet attacks on their enterprise or organization. With the great increase in the number of businesses making a presence on the Internet and the increase in the number of cyber-customers, the chances of computer security attacks increase daily. How much should an enterprise or organization budget to defend against Internet attacks? This paper researches several time series forecasting models to find the best fit model for forecasting Internet Security attacks