Directorate-General for Research

this report and the forecast material contained within it were produced by the EUROFRAME group of European Research Institutes. The results are preliminary and should not be quoted without permission The Report is the result of a co-ordinated programme of work by the Institutes. The views reflect a consensus of those of the Institutes involved, inevitably with compromises. In this and in future reports all members reserve the right to append a minority report if they disagree strongly with the majority. The forecast numbers have been produced and co-ordinated using the NIESR global model, NiGEM, which includes models for all European Union countries. The model is an attempt to represent the economies as they currently stand, and hence account has been taken of developments in labour and product markets that will have changed the way economies can be expected to behave. PE 300.525 v CONTENTS PREFACE ............................................................................................................................................................III SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................................ IX THE PROSPECTS FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION ECONOMY ................................................................................... IX External environment ...................................................................................................................................ix Prospects for the Euro Area .........................................................................................................................ix Risks around the forecast ............................................................................