Integrating Mechanistic and Statistical Deterioration

This paper presents a two-level approach for the maintenance management of aging highway bridges that integrates two different probabilistic deterioration prediction models. The level-1 management is based on Markovian cumulative damage models that predict the macro-response of bridge structures. The level-2 management is based on quantitative reliability-based mechanistic deterioration models that predict the micro-response of bridge structures. The level 1-management identifies the critically damaged structures and forecasts the overall deterioration and required maintenance funds for both short and long term planning for a bridge network or a bridge component. The level-2 management focuses on the critical structures that were identified from the level-1 management or from a specific condition assessment to evaluate their safety and serviceability, and optimize their maintenance. The proposed two-level approach to bridge maintenance management, which integrates two different probabilistic deterioration models, will help improve the effectiveness of maintenance management systems in satisfying the safety, serviceability, and budgetary requirements of highway agencies