Modeling and Managing Risk Early in Software Development

In order to improve the quality of the software development process, we need to be able to build empirical multivariate models based on data collectable early in the software process. These models need to be both useful for prediction and easy to interpret, so that remedial actions may be taken in order to control and optimize the development process. We present an automated modeling technique which can be used as an alternative to regression techniques. We show how it can be used to facilitate the identification and aid the interpretation of the significant trends which characterize "high risk" components in several Ada systems. Finally, we evaluate the effectiveness of our technique based on a comparison with logistic regression based models. 1 Introduction It is often noted that a small number of software components are responsible for a large part of the difficulty during software development. In light of this relationship, there have been a number of studies that focus on the dev..