Research Paper No. 2008/51 How Macroeconomic Instability Lowers Child Survival

The reduction of child mortality is one of the most universally accepted Millennium Goals. However, there is a significant debate on the means of reaching it and its realism with regard to the situation in most of the least developed countries. The recommendations made for the achievement of this goal are mainly medical ones. However, without underestimating the importance of these measures, in particular vaccinations, it seems increasingly obvious that the rate of reduction of child mortality is mainly determined by the evolution of macroeconomic environment. The influence of per capita income level on mortality is frequently underlined. But a given income growth does not have the same effect on child survival if it is stable or unstable. Indeed, rises and falls of income probably have asymmetrical effects on mortality. The purpose of this analysis is precisely to show how macroeconomic instability influences the evolution of child mortality. The analysis is based on a pane