Epidemiology and dynamic of hand, foot and mouth disease in Vietnam

This work analyzed all HFMD cases reported in Hai Phong in 2011 and 2012 outbreak which was the largest to have ever occurred in Vietnam and the first recorded in the northern part of the country. Hai Phong city experienced the highest HFMD incidence in North Vietnam. It was thus a good model for investigating the dynamic of the disease without interference and potential remains from previous outbreaks or patient immunological adaptation.The first section is dedicated to a review of the literature on EV-A71 and enteroviruses. The second section is divided in three chapters, each one addressing a specific issue of the project.The first chapter addresses the dynamic of the disease and the role of official guidelines in the handling of the 2011-2012 epidemic. Beside basic epidemiological features, the study also provides findings relating to the influence of HFMD guidelines during the outbreak period that has never been described before. The guideline release led to a significant increase of the severity score and reduced delay between onset and admission. This effect is linked to an increased awareness leading to patients being mostly declared with severe symptoms in order to ensure a better treatment and surveillance. The work presented in this chapter also demonstrated that three waves occurred with different characteristics and caused by three different viruses. Wave 1 and wave 3 were caused by EV-A71 and a combination of CV-A6 and CV-A16, respectively while Wave 2 was caused by an unknown virus. This work is also an integrative analysis including a spatiotemporal analysis. The disease seems to have expanded following the eastbound river system to reach densely populated settlements from where it secondarily expanded through local roads. Owing to the average age of the patients, around 2, the source of contamination must be sought for within asymptomatic adults being contaminated during their occupational activities and in local movements.The second chapter addresses the phylogeny and spatiotemporal distribution of EV-A71 in North Vietnam and provides an insight on the evolution and dynamic of the EV-A71 enterovirus. The VP1 capsid protein was used as target. The first conclusion of this chapter is that the 2011-2012 outbreak was not caused by an incoming strain but by EV-A71 strains which were already present in North Vietnam. This indicates that they can remain in a low level, asymptomatic state, in genomic stasis and with a geographic structuration. The cause for outbreaks should thus be sought for in the socio-economic patterns rather than in exogenous emergence. Another outcome of this chapter is the observed correlation between I/V variant groups and phylogeny, pathogenicity and ethnicity. The I/V pattern at positions 249, 262 and 284 on the VP1 protein might play a role in pathogenicity. The observed correlation of the I/V variant populations with severity and ethnicity strengthen this hypothesis.The last chapter addresses the mathematical modelling of a multiphase disease such as HFMD. It is essential to detect as soon as possible the emergence of new wave, associated to a novel agent. Owing to the large size of the cohort available for this work (ca. 9000 patients), we have been able to develop a differential equation model providing a very high fit with the observed data. The model confirmed that three waves were present in 2011-2012 with differing virulence. It also allows to characterize each wave, detect the start of a new one and associate groups of patients with specific patterns of symptoms.As a conclusion, this PhD work as underlined some key issues to be addressed in a coordinated way in order help developing an efficient surveillance and monitoring system for HFMD in Vietnam