Future Scenarios for Energy Security and Sustainable Desalination in Jordan

Jordan is one of the most water-scarce countries in the world and contains very limited reserves of traditional energy resources. In fact, the country is classified as extremely water scarce according to FAO, with a water availability of less than 100 m3 per person annually. Additionally, in 2017, 94% of total primary energy resources were imported. In parallel, the Kingdom’s population has more than doubled since 1997, due mainly to regional instability, putting a further strain on resources. Furthermore, climate change will only exacerbate water scarcity issues in the coming years. The objective of this thesis is to identify future scenarios for increased energy independence in Jordan and to examine the effect of desalination on the associated increase in water consumption for power generation. This intersection between water and energy resources is known as the Water-Energy nexus. Nexus planning is a holistic strategy that aims to create synergies between sectors, whereas traditional planning can in some cases put them at odds with each other (UNECE, 2015). The methodology is widely used for regional- or national-scale intersectoral planning and serves as the underlying motivation for this investigation. A model of Jordan’s power system on the national level was built using the Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS) with eight scenarios to 2050. OSeMOSYS uses linear programming for cost optimization in long-term planning. The program seeks to minimize cost based on the given data and constraints input by the modeler. Because the Jordanian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), has set a target for 40% of all energy to be supplied by domestic resources by 2025, several scenarios were created with varying domestic resource targets by that year. As a case study for desalination, The Red Sea-Dead Sea Water Conveyance Project (RSDSP) was used. The RSDSP is a massive desalination and hydropower project that, if constructed, will connect the Red Sea to the Dead Sea. The results of the scenarios have demonstrated that a 100% domestic power supply is, in fact, feasible by 2025. To achieve that, renewables, specifically wind and solar, will supply much of the added domestic resource capacity. At the same time, combined cycle power plants will also remain an integral part of the energy mix in order to provide dispatchable power production, as battery storage was found not to be cost effective. Large scale desalination, in the context of the RSDSP, was shown to be net freshwater positive in all scenarios. Thus, it is highly recommended that the project be constructed in order to provide a sustainable and reliable water source for the region. Together, the results of this project provide pathways for a sustainable and secure future for the energy and water sectors in Jordan