POLICY OPTIONS TO REDUCE IRELAND’S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS. ESRI RESEARCH SERIES NUMBER 9 JULY 2009

Owing to the economic recession from 2008 Ireland is likely to meet its commitments for 2008-2012 under the Kyoto Protocol to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, the longer term targets that the European Union has set for 2020 are still stringent. Those sectors of the Irish economy that participate in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) must reduce their emissions by 21 per cent below their 2005 levels. The remainder, and bulk, of Ireland’s emissions must reduce by 20 per cent on their 2005 level. In quantity terms, this is a target of some 56 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2020, compared to the approximately 69 million tonnes emitted in 2007. Forecasting is particularly difficult under changing economic conditions, but on the basis of plausible assumptions, known policies and trends prevailing up to April 2009, emissions in 2020 could be marginally higher than their 2005 level without additional policies and measures. If there is a broader international commitment agreed under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the European commitment will strengthen to a reduction of 30 per cent. Although Ireland’s reductions are insignificant in global terms, it can make a promising contribution to global efforts by showing how worthwhile an efficient approach to climate policy can be