Crossing the chasm of hydrogen electric vehicles to new technology dominance in the automotive industry: A stated choice experiment to forecast alternative fuel vehicle market diffusion in the Netherlands

In this thesis the Dutch consumer’ trade-off between hydrogen fuel cell technology and battery electric vehicles has been studied and identified which policy factors are effective to enable a FCEV breakthrough in the Netherlands. The consumer trade-off between different vehicle attributes is estimated by applying a discrete choice experiment and using the choice data to build a discrete choice model. A multinomial logit model was used to estimate the taste coefficients and based on this obtained coefficients the attribute importance is estimated. In order to understand the importance of policy factors we simulated different policy options to assess the impact on the market shares of FCEVs and BEVs. Finally, policy recommendation are made based on the policy effectiveness and its cost-effectiveness and feasibility.Complex Systems Engineering and Management (CoSEM