The Causal Relationship of Overconfidence of Managers, R&D Input, and Corporate Values

[[abstract]]以往研究發現經理人過度自信會影響其公司的投資決策，而過度自信的經理人因之前不錯的經營績效而做出未來獲利之保證，因此此類經理人為維護其名聲和創造個人財富，並且有頗高的自信可以掌握研發投資的結果，故會進行更多的創新活動，因為，經理人相信創新一定成功，即使失敗也能負荷成本；且創新活動能成為個人和公司績效方面的踏板，而有著極大的助益，因此，本研究分析為過度自信之經理人與研發投入的關係；而投入創新活動之資本是否會影響公司價值；經理人是否有可能因對自己的信心過度增加，進而導致錯誤的投資決策，對公司價值造成影響。此研究探討經理人過度自信，進而影響公司研發投入與公司價值之間的因果關係。 經實證結果顯示經理人過度自信(OC)和研發投入(RI)無相關，表示經理人過度自信(OC)和研發投入(RI)兩者之間並無關聯性。經理人過度自信(OC)和公司價值(CV)有顯著性負相關，表示經理人過度自信(OC)對公司價值有著明顯的負面影響。研發投入(RI)和公司價值(CV)有顯著性正相關，表示研發投入(RI)愈多，公司價值(CV)就會愈高。 Previous studies showed that managers’ overconfidence can affect corporate investment decisions, and overconfident managers will guarantee the future profits due to good operation performance in the past. In order to maintain their fames and create personal wealth, such managers will conduct more innovation activities because they are extremely confident to grasp the results of R&D input and believe that innovation will certainly bring success and the costs can be borne even if failures occur. Moreover, innovation activities are greatly helpful to gain the personal and corporate performance. Therefore, this study analyzed the following items: the relationship between overconfident managers and R&D input, whether the investment in innovation activities will affect corporate value and whether it is possible that the managers will make wrong investment decisions and thus affect corporate value due to their overconfidence. This study explored the causal relationship between managers’ overconfidence and R&D input and corporate value. The empirical results showed that managers’ overconfidence (OC) is unrelated to R&D input (RI), representing that there is no correlation between managers’ overconfidence (OC) and R&D input (RI). Managers’ overconfidence (OC) has significantly negative correlation with corporate value (CV), representing that managers’ overconfidence (OC) has significantly negative effects on corporate value. R&D input (RI) has significantly positive correlation with corporate value (CV), representing that the more R&D input (RI) will bring higher company value (CV)