Probabilistic analysis applied to the risk assessment of dams

Conventional engineering primarily uses a deterministic analysis of the parameters to obtain results. Therefore, an evaluation was used as a unique solution; however, the parameters used in the analysis present considerable variability due to the nature of the materials. That disregard of a variable of the materials has been wrong in the safety assessment, resultant in which: solutions economically more expensive or higher risk to the enterprise. Thereby, the work elaborates a probabilistic analysis treat-ment of factor of safety of dams for a more realistic perception. In order to evaluate the influence of the variability of the measurements applied to dams design, the case study of a hypothetical composed dam. Through this analysis, it was possible to conclude that the probabilities of the risk assessment process may be more significant than the acceptable risk, even if the deterministic safety factor is within the limits allowed by the rule, which may prescribe an unfeasibility of the enterprise, in addi-tion to demonstrating the most substantial amount of safety of the dam