Techno-economic analysis of residential thermal flexibility for demand side management

The continuing rise in solar and wind production leads to an increasing demand of flexibility to stabilize the electricity grid. Furthermore, we can assume a gradual but intensive rise in the use of electrical heatpumps for household spatial heating, for different reasons. Therefore, this paper investigates the feasibility and viability of entering the flexibility market by aggregating residential thermal loads. For this research, a dataset of 200 dwellings in the Netherlands, equipped with a heatpump and smart metering infrastructure, is analysed. By means of a greybox modeling approach, a thermal model and control framework have been set up for every house, in order to identify the load shift potential and the accompanying cost of providing flexibility for the houses. We find that thermal flexibility is asymmetric: downwards flexibility is, apart from much more dependent on outdoor temperature than upwards flexibility, strictly lower than upwards flexibility. The cost for downwards flexibility is strictly negative in terms of the prosumer. Concerning upwards flexibility, the cost is most of the time positive. Moreover, it can be concluded that there is a potentially viable business case for the flexibility aggregator