Add to ORKGThis study uses election futures market data to provide the first empirical evidence that aggregate earnings conveys timely “election-relevant” information affecting voters’ preferences during U.S. presidential election campaigns. I document that aggregate earnings news is associated with multiple facets of U.S. economic health affecting voter utility. I then use novel high-frequency data from the Iowa Electronic Political Prediction Market to document that aggregate earnings news (and cash flow news in particular) is significantly related to the expected outcomes of U.S. presidential elections
Prediction markets now cover many important political events. The 2004 presi-dential election featur...
Uncertainty about the economy can increase volatility in financial market returns. One potential sou...
Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that e...
Everybody knows that "the economy" matters in presidential elections, but how can one incorporate ec...
Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that e...
The paper has previously been presented at the Third International Conference on Prediction and Info...
In this paper we argue that pre-election polls and prediction markets reflect two different processe...
www.stanford.edu/~ericz Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcom...
Public officials, many academic experts, and the press consider aggregate economic conditions to be ...
It is well known that elections are determined by certain fundamental variables: internal factors th...
This paper focuses on the race 2020 democratic presidential nomination and analyzes the effectivenes...
As most political scientists know, the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election can be predicted wi...
Given the severe shock of the 2008 economic crisis, this paper examines the relationship the relatio...
Using stock market and economic data from 1900 to 2008 from 27 separate presidential administrations...
1 In recent years, prediction markets have drawn considerable attention as a tool for forecasting fu...
Prediction markets now cover many important political events. The 2004 presi-dential election featur...
Uncertainty about the economy can increase volatility in financial market returns. One potential sou...
Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that e...
Everybody knows that "the economy" matters in presidential elections, but how can one incorporate ec...
Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that e...
The paper has previously been presented at the Third International Conference on Prediction and Info...
In this paper we argue that pre-election polls and prediction markets reflect two different processe...
www.stanford.edu/~ericz Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcom...
Public officials, many academic experts, and the press consider aggregate economic conditions to be ...
It is well known that elections are determined by certain fundamental variables: internal factors th...
This paper focuses on the race 2020 democratic presidential nomination and analyzes the effectivenes...
As most political scientists know, the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election can be predicted wi...
Given the severe shock of the 2008 economic crisis, this paper examines the relationship the relatio...
Using stock market and economic data from 1900 to 2008 from 27 separate presidential administrations...
1 In recent years, prediction markets have drawn considerable attention as a tool for forecasting fu...
Prediction markets now cover many important political events. The 2004 presi-dential election featur...
Uncertainty about the economy can increase volatility in financial market returns. One potential sou...
Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that e...