Re-mapping the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami inundation in the Banda Aceh region with attention to probable sea level rise

The effects of the Great Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake and the resulting tsunami on December 26, 2004 were greatest in the Banda Aceh region of northern Sumatra, where wave heights reached between 9 and 12 meters. Studies of the Sumatra-Andaman fault indicate that the fault will rupture again, probably within the next 100 years, putting the Banda Aceh region in danger of another tsunami. It is essential to the lives of all Acheans that an evacuation plan and an early warning tsunami system are established in Banda Aceh. To accomplish this, it is necessary to understand the extent and nature of 2004 inundation as well as understand the future risks to the area. This study develops a model to describe the 2004 inundation of Banda Aceh from data collected by two teams of international scientists. It then projects future inundation limits and heights that may occur in Banda Aceh under the same initial seismic conditions as in 2004, but with sea level rise due to climate change and earthquake related subsidence. This study also models possible tsunami inundation limits and heights under probable future seismic events. Results suggest that changes in sea level on the scale of 3 meters have the potential to cause inundation paths that go 0.5 to 1.8 kilometers farther inland than those experienced in 2004