Does the ACA Break Down Barriers to Self-Employment? A Predictive Model to Measure an Individual\u27s Probability of Being Self-Employed in the Years 2008-2015

This paper studies the effect the Affordable Care Act (ACA) had on self-employment in the United States in the years 2008-2015. The study examines different individual and demographic characteristics that may influence self-employment to determine a model that predicts the probability of an individual being self-employed. Adding year variables, the model interprets the effect the ACA has on certain individuals in a given year using a probit regression. The model finds that once the legislation of the ACA was fully implemented in 2014, there is an increase in the probability of being self-employed for individuals in states that had no significant healthcare reform passed in recent years. Also, the magnitude of the increases varies by individual and larger increases are observed in individuals who have more resources and education. These findings are significantly significant, but the full effect of the increases cannot solely be attributed to the passage of the ACA