Predicting death or tracheostomy placement in infants with severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of death or tracheostomy placement (D/T) in infants with severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (sBPD) born \u3c 32 weeks\u27 gestation referred to regional neonatal intensive care units. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in infants born \u3c 32 weeks\u27 gestation with sBPD in 2010-2011, using the Children\u27s Hospital Neonatal Database. sBPD was defined as the need for FiO(2) \u3e = 0.3, nasal cannula support \u3e 2 l min(-1) or positive pressure at 36 weeks\u27 post menstrual age. The primary outcome was D/T before discharge. Predictors associated with D/T in bivariable analyses (P \u3c 0.2) were used to develop a multivariable logistic regression equation using 80% of the cohort. This equation was validated in the remaining 20% of infants. RESULT: Of 793 eligible patients, the mean gestational age was 26 weeks\u27 and the median age at referral was 6.4 weeks. D/T occurred in 20% of infants. Multivariable analysis showed that later gestational age at birth, later age at referral along with pulmonary management as the primary reason for referal, mechanical ventilation at the time of referral, clinically diagnosed pulmonary hypertension, systemic corticosteroids after referral and occurrence of a bloodstream infection after referral were each associated with D/T. The model performed well with validation (area under curve 0.86, goodness-of-fit chi(2), P = 0.66). CONCLUSION: Seven clinical variables predicted D/T in this large, contemporary cohort with sBPD. These results can be used to inform clinicians who counsel families of affected infants and to assist in the design of future prospective trials