Metropolitan Business Cycle Analysis for Lubbock

Abstract. This study develops a business cycle index (BCI) for Lubbock Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The Stock & Watson (1989; 1991; 1993) methodology is used to develop the BCI and assumes that the co-movements of key economic indicators have a single underlying, unobservable factor. This factor is extracted from the indicators and used to calculate an index that represents economic conditions through an econometric approach. The model uses the Kalman filter smoothing approach which smooths across variables and over time. This results in an index that is smoother with less pronounced expansions and recessions. Indicator series used for the study are: establishment employment, unemployment, real retail sales and real wages that begin in 1990 and include complete data through the end of 2015. Results indicate that the Lubbock business cycle has peaks and troughs that occur later than those for the national economy.Keywords. Regional Economics; Business Cycles; Economic Indicators.JEL. R15, E32