As políticas brasileiras de comércio exterior - 1947-88

In this article we present a critical survey of the Brazilian trade policy for the period 1947/1988. We show that there has been frequent changes in the central aim of this policy, ocilating between restrictive and liberal policies. We try to highlight that these changes can be characterized as regime changes. Therefore, estimates of the trade equations coefficients may be subjected to the Lucas critique.In this article we present a critical survey of the Brazilian trade policy for the period 1947/1988. We show that there has been frequent changes in the central aim of this policy, ocilating between restrictive and liberal policies. We try to highlight that these changes can be characterized as regime changes. Therefore, estimates of the trade equations coefficients may be subjected to the Lucas critique