NFL Betting Market Efficiency: A Closer Look at the Final Day of Betting

This paper utilizes opening and closing betting lines on the day of play in the NFL to investigate if changes in the spread are a result of uninformed bettors. I formulate and empirically test the changes in the spread as they relate to home field advantage, favorites and hot hand betting. The results show that bettors tend to overvalue information and as a result, the actual scores shift less dramatically than the spreads on the final day of betting. A profitable betting strategy can be implemented betting against the shift in the spread. Additionally, it is more profitable to bet on home underdogs than away underdogs and more profitable to bet on away favorites than home favorites when betting against the shift in the spread