THE IMPACT OF INCREASING FOOD PRICES ON FOOD SECURITY IN THE REPUBLIC OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO – FORECASTING FOOD PRODUCTION AND PRICES AND ESTIMATING MARKETING MARGINS

Global food prices have doubled over the past three years and have increased by 43 percent in the past year, potentially pushing 100 million people globally into poverty. In Trinidad and Tobago, food prices have increased faster than the price of other items since 1994. This paper looks at the development of retail food prices in Trinidad and Tobago, its causes, the potential impact in terms of food security and possible policy options for addressing this. It is claimed that the results underscore the need for increased producer supply response to capitalize on the opportunity offered by higher commodity prices, and increasing consumer education about the ‘real’ cost of value-added activities in the food supply. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model forecasted future directions for specific commodity prices. Marketing margin analyses for these commodities identified profit margins for players in the marketing channel. Results indicated with current trends in production, importation and marketing margins, food prices are expected to continue to increase over the next ten years