The impact of automated transit, pedestrian, and bicycling facilities on urban travel patterns

This article reports on an integrated modeling exercise, conducted on behalf of the US Federal Highway Administration, on the potential for frequent automated transit shuttles (‘community transit’), in conjunction with improvements to the walking and cycling environment, to overcome the last-mile problem of regional rail transit and thereby divert travelers away from car use. A set of interlocking investigations was undertaken, including development of urban visualizations, distribution of a home-based survey supporting a stated-preference model of mode choice, development of an agent-based model, and alignment of the mode-choice and agent-based models. The investigations were designed to produce best-case estimates of the impact of community transit and ancillary improvements in reducing car use. The models in combination suggested significant potential to divert drivers, especially in areas that were relatively transit-poor to begin with