Flexible Substitution Patterns in Models of Mode and Time of Day Choice: New Evidence from the UK and the Netherlands

This study seeks to determine the relative sensitivity of mode and time of day choice to changes in travel times and costs and to investigate whether evidence exists of varying magnitudes of unobservable influences in time of day switching. The study draws on data from three related stated preference studies undertaken over the past decade in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands and uses error components logit models to investigate the patterns of substitution between mode and time of day alternatives. Findings show that the magnitude of unobserved influences on time switching depends significantly on the magnitudes of the time switches considered. With time periods of the magnitude generally represented in practical modeling, i.e. peak periods of 2-3 hours, time switching is generally more sensitive in these data than mode switching. The context of the modeling and the extent to which relevant variables can be measured will strongly influence these results. The need to simplify the model for practical application is discussed