How spatial and transport planning affects car and public transport ownership. A panel data simulation.

Individual travel behaviour is decisively influenced by long term commitments due to the ownership of cars and public transport passes. A sound forecasts of car ownership are crucial for accurate estimates of future mobility trends and planning strategies’ impact on travel demand. These forecasts are traditionally based upon models taking into account demographic and economic trends. However, most car ownership models ignore that planning strategies could influence car ownership decisions by reducing (or increasing) the need for (mutiple) car ownership. In urban areas with good accessibilty by alternative modes many households live with no or only one car even if they could afford a (2nd) vehicle. This paper analyses the of residential location chioce and life course evente and on the availability of cars, public transport passes and driving licences using discrete choice models. First, it investigates, how accessibility to shops and services are linked to car and public transport pass ownership using a survey of 4.500 households in the Hanover region. It shows, that motorisation levels more than double from the most to the least accessible areas within the region, when controlling for socio-economic variables. Second, it uses data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and the Mobility-Panel (MOP) to estimate a dynamic model of households aquisition and the disposal of cars and public transport passes. It anlyses the impact of life course events, residential location choice and accessibility on these decisions. The model will be applied as part of a micro-simulation of mobility tool ownership for a synthetic population in order to estimate the effects of planning strategies and transport investments on car and public transport pass ownership