AN INTEGRATED EVALUATION MODEL FOR SHAPING FUTURE RESILIENT SCENARIOS IN MULTI-POLE TERRITORIAL SYSTEMS

In the present paper an integrated evaluation procedure is considered, with the aim of evaluating the ecological and economic synergies within an environmental system. The case study chosen to test this procedure is the Monferrato Ovadese in the province of Alessandria (Piedmont, Italy). The territory, which includes almost 40 municipalities, was divided into a system of 11 clusters, that were treated as interactive poles of the territory itself. This integrated procedure uses a system of ecological and economic indicators. For landscape ecology, the indicators were introduced as coefficients, which predict the transformation scenarios of the environmental system under observation. For the economics, indicators were integrated through a Multicriteria Analysis in order to define a super-indicator, which may be interpreted as a measure of attractiveness of the poles inside the environmental system. The attractiveness was subsequently set as the critical parameter of a dynamical system represented by the mathematical model of a Lotka Volterra type, which simulated people flows within the territory. This study demonstrates how this novel evaluation procedure can be used to support the decision-making process in the choice of sustainable territorial and urban actions