Modeling a community's vulnerability to wildfire damage

Wildfire activities have greatly increased in the United States and this can mainly be accredited to global climate change and decades of excess fuel buildup particularly deadwood and underbrush resulting from wildfire suppression. Over the years, the forest service and interagency fire community have studied not only the science behind wildfire itself but also the science of predicting it and the likelihood of events when a fire-start occurs. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a fire damage estimation model when an area is subject to a wildfire. This model is intended to be a preliminary guide that will help agencies and managers make proper decisions regarding the safety of the area when a wildfire breaks out. The model developed basically estimates the acres expected to burn. Risk factors that influence the behavior of a wildfire and their contribution to a wildfire was investigated in this research. The results from models such as the National Fire Danger Rating System and Keetch-Byram Drought Index were incorporated into the model. The result of the developed model in predicting the expected acres that will burn in an area subjected to wildfire is efficient to act on. The model developed is easy to use and fast as well once all the parameters required are known