Ethnic Politics, Elite Fracture and Security Dilemma in Ethiopia: New Trends and Scenarios Since 2015

Ethiopia has been battle ground among contesting and competing ethnic identities for centuries and this infamous history of enmity images, perceptions, contradictory narrative, and insecurity dilemma in turn perpetuated mutual fear and mistrust among Ethiopian political elites and opposition leaders, identity groups, national institutions and symbols. This cyclic cause-effect interplay of unpredictable political order has continued to breed sense of insecurity and unresolvable uncertainty manifested in bloody protests, declaration of state of emergency, widespread territorial and identity claims and questions, violation of constitutional provision, disregard of legal protection for citizens, and incapacity to deliver rule, order and security. The post-2015 political unpredictability and uncertainty is washing away the core national and institutional values of democratic governance, equality, rule of law, self-rule and shared rule (ethnic federalism), the prospects for peace, accommodation, and development. Keywords: ethnic federalism, constitutionalism, security dilemma, elite fracture, ethnic protest DOI: 10.7176/DCS/9-5-01 Publication date:May 31st 201