MILK PRICES IN THE EUROPEAN UNION BY 2025 AND PROJECTION OF THE PROFITABILITY OF MILK PRODUCTION IN POLAND IN 2020

In Europe, more than 70% of milk production falls on the European Unioncountries. Among the largest milk producers in the EU, Poland ranks fourth. Theabolition of quotas for milk production and increase in supply to the marketcontributed to the decline in milk prices. The aim of the study is to determine theimpact of the rate of change in prices of agricultural inputs and changes in milkyield of cows and milk prices on the profitability of milk production in Polandprojected for 2020. The sample consisted of 169 farms which in 2014-2015 kept anaverage of 27 cows. In 2015, the index of the profitability of milk productionamounted to 130.7%, and in comparison to 2014 it decreased by 18.4 percentagepoint. The results projection for 2020 show an improvement in milk yield of cows(by 12.4%) and milk prices (by 15.4%). Stronger growth in the revenues (by29.1%) than the cost of keeping cows (by 15.5%) will stimulate the improvementof economic results. The index of the profitability of milk production will increaseby 15.4 percentage points, and income per cow by 73.3%. This means that it willbe at a level similar to 2014. Research shows that fluctuations in selling prices ofmilk are possible (+/-8.7%). Despite this, the milk production will continue to beprofitable. Results of this study are consistent with the projection of the EuropeanCommission, which provides for an increase in milk prices and milk production inthe EU