Predictability of Curriculum-based Reading Measures for Statewide Test Performance

National legislation has led to an increasing need for school districts to demonstrate student reading progress using performance on statewide achievement tests as indicators of growth. This study added to previous research on the effectiveness of curriculum-based measurement (CBM) in predicting success on statewide reading achievement tests and determining whether a student is at-risk for poor performance on statewide tests. The current study analyzed the relationship between a CBM tool for assessing reading progress, the Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS), and a statewide reading assessment, the Pennsylvania System of School Assessment (PSSA). This study compared the predictive efficiency of three components of the DIBELS, Oral Reading Fluency (ORF), Daze, and Total, for student performance on the PSSA. The study analyzed scores of 75 participants across and within Grade 4 and Grade 5. No significant differences were found between ORF, Daze, and Total scores or between fall and spring DIBELS administrations. Results indicate that ORF, Daze, and Total categories are similar predictors of student statewide test performance and that DIBELS Total category is not more predictive than individual DIBELS measures. Results also suggest that DIBELS is a valuable tool for school districts to monitor student reading progress