After Bin Laden: An Alternative Futures Analysis for Al-Qaida, Uncertainty in the Arab World, and U.S. Counterterrorism Policy

Developments concerning Al-Qaida\u27s affiliates in the Middle East and North Africa, since the death of Usama Bin Laden have played a critical role in the already volatile and unstable environment in the Arab region. Islamic extremism and terrorist threats pose a serious challenge to emerging Arab governments, U.S. national security, and American interests abroad, and create additional difficulties for U.S. counterterrorism policy. Increasing instability in the Arab region will be carefully analyzed through a structured analytic technique called alternative futures analysis. The assessments will be used to develop sound policy recommendations that advances U.S. interests in the region, particularly the targeting of terrorist organizations that threaten the United States