Influence of oil shock on macroeconomic variables in the U.S.

Naftna industrija jedna je od glavnih pokretača rasta i razvoja gospodarstva gotovo svake zemlje, pa tako i SAD. Čovjek kroz čitavu svoju povijest iskorištava različite energente, ali tek s prvom industrijskom revolucijom i eksploatacijom ugljena, kasnije i nafte, dolazi do prekretnice i do bržeg gospodarskog razvitka, a razvijenost naftne industrije i kontrola nad naftnim resursima koji su geografski neravnomjerno raspoređeni, postaje jedna od glavnih odrednica razvijenosti zemlje. Od razvoja naftne industrije počinju periodi povremenih većih skokova i promjena cijena uzrokovani naftnim krizama i poremećajima u proizvodnji nafte. Kako je cijena nafte izražena u američkim dolarima nagle promjene cijene utječu na kretanje odnosa dolara i ostalih valuta te na ekonomske odnose u svijetu. Za očekivati je i u budućnosti pojave energetskih kriza sve dok se ne pronađu alternativni izvori energije koji bi značajno smanjili potrošnju nafte i osigurali viškove energije. Današnje krize se manifestiraju u vrlo kratkom roku i vidljive su globalno na tržištima kapitala te je potrebno voditi računa o dovoljnim izvorima energije kako bi se podržao stabilan gospodarski rast. Cilj ovog rada je analiza utjecaja nafte te naftnih šokova na gospodarstvo SAD-a, odnosno na njegove makroekonomske varijable, ali i uočavanje potrebe za povećanjem energetske neovisnost i efikasnosti.The oil industry is one of the main drivers of growth and economic development in almost every country, including the United States. Throughout its history, man has been using various energy sources, but only with the first industrial revolution and the exploitation of coal, later oil, does a turning point and faster economic development occur, and the development of the oil industry and the control over oil resources, which are geographically unevenly distributed, become one of the the main determinants of the country's development. Since the development of the oil industry, there have been periods of occasional major surges and price changes caused by oil crises and disruptions in oil production. As the price of oil is expressed in US dollars, sudden changes in the price affect the movement of dollar and other currencies and economic relations in the world. Energy crises are expected to continue in the future until alternative energy sources are found that would significantly reduce oil consumption and provide surplus energy. Today's crises manifest themselves in a very short period of time and are visible globally in the capital markets and sufficient energy sources need to be taken into account to support stable economic growth. The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of oil and oil shocks on the US economy, that is, its macroeconomic variables, and to identify the need to increase energy independence and efficiency