Total Physical Activity, Exercise Intensity, and Walking Speed as Predictors of All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Over 7 Years in Older Men: The Concord Health and Aging in Men Project

Objective The study aimed to examine the contemporaneous temporal association between changes in total physical activity, sports intensity, muscle strengthening exercise, and walking speed as predictors of all-cause, cardiovascular, cancer and other cause-specific mortality in older men. Design, setting, participants, measurements Community-dwelling men aged 70 years and older from Concord Health and Aging in Men Project were assessed at baseline (2005-2007, n = 1705), 2 years (n = 1367), and 5 years follow-up (n = 958). At all time points, Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly questionnaire, walking speed over a 6-m walk, and potential confounders were assessed. Mortality was ascertained through the state death registry with a median follow-up of 7 years. Results As the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly score increased by 1 standard deviation over the follow-up period, the relative risk (RR) for mortality was 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69-0.88] for all-cause, 0.66 (95% CI 0.55-0.79) for cardiovascular and 0.75 (95% CI 0.61-0.94) for other cause-specific mortality, but no association was observed in cancer mortality. The RR for undertaking strenuous sports during follow-up was 0.44 (95% CI 0.26-0.72) for all-cause mortality and 0.31 (95% CI 0.13-0.70) for cancer mortality when compared with no sports participation. Increases in walking speed per standard deviation over time were also associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.61-0.78), with similar associations for cardiovascular (RR 0.60, 95% CI 0.48-0.74), but not cancer mortality. Conclusions Older men who engage in strenuous sports and those who increase their walking speed over time may have lower risk of all-cause and some cause-specific mortality.NHMRC, Sydney Medical School Foundation, Ageing and Alzheimer's Institute