Climate leadership and the developing world: the case of India

The global response to climate change is becoming one of the defining issues of the 21st century. Up until this point, action sufficient to halt rising global temperatures has not arisen, and meaningful state leadership to steer the world toward a safe climate has largely been absent. Identifying the factors that predispose states to climate leadership can aid in understanding why this is the current case. To partially address this, a framework against which metrics of climate performance could indicate modes of leadership - idea-based, coercive and directional is formed to make assessments of climate leadership. Key to this is understanding that leadership is either constrained or propelled by domestic material and political factors. The global institutional regime has laid out its own expectations of where leadership should arise from, however the ever changing nature of global power has meant its ideals are increasingly strained. The developing world is an increasing source of greenhouse gases, and will account for greater emissions than the developed world over the period 1990-2030. As such, to avoid a climate catastrophe, the developing world must be involved. Of the biggest developing states, India is set to play an increasingly important role in defining a global climate change response, given its growing geopolitical power and an expectation of significant emissions increases. Until the last decade, India took a very defensive role in arguing for continuing national emissions rises. More recently, it has begun to engage more meaningfully in the global response, however its actions are still unambitious in nature. Against all leadership modes, India is not acting as a leader. This is largely due to its development imperatives that require continuing fossil fuel driven energy expansion, and that this view is largely uncontested across Indian society. Other BASIC countries are acting more ambitiously, but are limited by similar developmental needs and a limited air of responsibility. The institutional settings for global leadership do not place developing countries in a position to lead, and as such, leadership is currently unlikely to arise from this group