Spatial Assessment of Current and Future Wildfire Risk in Los Angeles County, California

As our climate continues to change, forest fires in California are expected to increase in both size and intensity. Understanding how climate change affects the risk of wildfires is vital in protecting both the land and citizens who live in the area, as well as aiding in better wildfire management. The purpose of this project was to understand current and future wildfire risk in Los Angeles County based on natural and anthropogenic influences. This project first analyzed different factors affecting wildfire risk such as: vegetation type, land use, proximity to roads, precipitation, temperature, and wind speed. Individual risk maps are created for each of the factors for a better understanding of their spatial distribution. A final risk map was generated by adding all the risk maps using tools in ArcMap. This map helps to identify areas of highest wildfire risk under current climate conditions. The next step of this project is to incorporate projected temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century to estimate how the intensity and spatial distribution wildfire risk will change in the future. With the expected increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation, wildfire risk is going to increase. This map provides vital information to land management officials in protecting this region of California. The final step of this project was to assess how much urban area was at risk to wildfires in both current and future conditions, and how many people live within these areas. Such information is beneficial to those in wildfire resource management and land management