Projecting Future Groundwater Recharge with CMIP5 Climate Models

Abstract This project aims to predict the future precipitation characteristics for the Dayton region using climate model scenarios. This is part of an on-going research project on assessing the future sustainability of the Great Miami Valley Buried Aquifer under the changing climate. Dayton is home to one of the most productive aquifer systems in the country, and assessing the effects of climate change on the sustainability of this resource provides important information for future utilization and planning. In this region, precipitation contributes to 35% - 66% of the groundwater recharge with seasonal variations. Therefore, it is important to project future precipitation patterns in order to assess the sustainability of the groundwater. This research is performed in 4 major steps: (1) Collect historical station data for Dayton from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), and historical simulations of precipitation and temperature from 10-15 CMIP5 Climate models; (2) Compare the GHCN station data with the historical model simulations to evaluate model bias; (3) Collect future simulations of precipitation and temperature from the same CMIP5 models for future climate scenarios, and correct the bias; (4) use future precipitation information to predict future groundwater recharge in the Dayton region. This information will be useful for regional planning committees and local government for decision making and planning processes for the future