Has the Radiologist Shortage Been Resolved? Recent Findings Using an Improved Survey Based Measurement

We report on a recently-developed, improved measure of shortages or surpluses of physicians - namely, the extent to which they desire less or more work if their income changes by the same percentage as their workload. Data from the American College of Radiology\u27s (ACRs) 2007 Survey of Radiologists are used. Physicians were contacted via telephone and email by an outside contractor to assure confidentiality. Responses were weighted to be representative of all post-training professionally active radiologists in the U.S. The author analyzed workloads and the desired workload changes for (i) radiologists who wanted less work, (ii) those who wanted more work, and (iii) those who sought no change. Characteristics of physicians in each of these three groups were analyzed. Multivariable regression analysis was employed to identify the probable causal links between characteristics of radiologists and the practices they work in with their desire for a workload change. The net average workload change sought in 2007 was approximately a 3% increase. By comparison, in 2003, radiologists on average did not desire a statistically significant change in workload. Subgroup analysis for 2007 indicates that, on average, radiologists working in government practices sought 26% more work, while those in multi-specialty private practices sought 4% more work. Those in the Northeast averaged wanting a 7% increase while in the Midwest and West, less than 1% change was desired. The overall balance between the demand and the supply of radiologists shifted towards a surplus between 2003 and 2007. Based on our measure, we judge there was a balance in 2003 and a 3% surplus in 2007. There were differences in the surplus/shortage situation by type and location of practice