Age truncation and portfolio effects in Puget Sound Pacific herring

Forage fish undergo dramatic changes in abundance through time. Long-term fluctuations, which have historically been attributed to changes in recruitment, may also be due to changes in adult mortality. Pacific herring, a lightly exploited forage fish in Puget Sound, WA, have exhibited shifts in age structure and decreases in spawning biomass during the past 30 years. Here, we investigate changes in adult mortality as a potential explanation for these shifts. Using a hierarchical, age-structured population model, we indicate that adult natural mortality for Puget Sound Pacific herring has increased since 1973. We find that natural mortality has increased for every age class of adult (age 3+), especially age 4 fish, whose estimated mortality has doubled over the survey time period (from M=0.84 to M=1.76). We demonstrate that long-term shifts in mortality explain changes in age structure, and may explain biomass declines and failure to reach management thresholds for some spawning sites in Puget Sound. Temporal shifts in natural adult mortality could have negative implications for herring and herring predators. For predators, these implications include a reduction in the stability of the herring resource