Divergent trends in migration timing of shorebirds along the Pacific flyway

Long distant migrants timing their arrival on the breeding grounds must make the tradeoff of optimal timing for breeding vs. optimal timing for survival. For many shorebird species, the flyway northward spans thousands of kilometers, and both conditions encountered en route and the priorities of individuals can affect the timing of migration. We used data from spring migration surveys of Western Sandpipers (Calidris mauri) and Pacific Dunlins (Calidris alpina pacifica) along the Pacific Flyway of North America to determine if the timing of their northward movements changed from 1985 to 2016. We examined 5 sites of varying size along the northern portion of the flyway from Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska, and estimated interannual trends in passage timing relative to each site’s distance to the breeding grounds. The peak passage dates at the sites closest to the species’ breeding grounds in Alaska shifted later by 1-2 days over the study period, while date of peak passage at sites further south shifted ~3 days earlier. A post-hoc analysis suggested local temperature also affected passage dates at most sites, with warmer temperatures being related to earlier passage. Discerning patterns of movement by Dunlins at southern sites was complicated by the presence of winter residents. Simulation analyses of sandpiper movement through a stopover site highlighted both length of stay and timing of arrival as important factors shaping peak passage estimates. We suggest Western Sandpipers appear to be arriving earlier at southern sites, and are spending longer at larger stopover sites such as Alaska’s Copper River Delta. Our analysis generates specific predictions for expected behavior on northward migration and we believe may be a useful indicator in other systems where historical count data are available. Ke