Modeling and Predicting Dengue Incidence in Highly Vulnerable Countries using Panel Data Approach

The spread of dengue has become a major public health concern in recent times due to alarming climate change. Using country level panel data over the 2000-2017 period, this paper examines the effects of climate change and socio-economic variables on the incidence of dengue-borne diseases in some of the most highly vulnerable countries. Empirical analysis shows a positive association between climate change and socio-economic conditions in the advent of dengue-borne diseases. We find that climate change, as measured by temperature, is proactively contributing to the spread of dengue-borne diseases. However, redressing the contributive factor behind climate change, via better awareness through education and improved public health facilitation, can assist in managing the occurrences and spread of dengue-borne diseases