Evolution at the Edge of Expanding Populations

International audiencePredicting the evolution of expanding populations is critical to controlling biological threats such as invasive species and cancer me-tastasis. Expansion is primarily driven by reproduction and dispersal, but nature abounds with examples of evolution where organisms pay a reproductive cost to disperse faster. When does selection favor this "survival of the fastest"? We searched for a simple rule, motivated by evolution experiments where swarming bacteria evolved into a hyperswarmer mutant that disperses ∼100% faster but pays a growth cost of ∼10% to make many copies of its flagellum. We analyzed a two-species model based on the Fisher equation to explain this observation: the population expansion rate (v) results from an interplay of growth (r) and dispersal (D) and is independent of the carrying capacity: v p 2(rD) 1=2. A mutant can take over the edge only if its expansion rate (v 2) exceeds the expansion rate of the established species (v 1); this simple condition (v 2 1 v 1) determines the maximum cost in slower growth that a faster mutant can pay and still be able to take over. Numerical simulations and time-course experiments where we tracked evolution by imaging bacteria suggest that our findings are general: less favorable conditions delay but do not entirely prevent the success of the fastest. Thus, the expansion rate defines a traveling wave fitness, which could be combined with trade-offs to predict evolution of expanding populations