Beyond the Ordinary: Innovative Spatial Energy Framework Offers Perspectives on Increased Energy and Carbon Objectives

Since the discovery of oil and gas, energy has been abundant and inexpensive. However, Campbell and others demonstrated that oil production already peaked (Campbell and Laherrère 1998; Campbell 1999, 2002a, b; Kaufmann 2006) and that the end of the oil era is near (Rifkin 2002; Belin 2008). This culminates in fast rising oil prices, despite the fact that prediction is difficult. According to the International Energy Outlook 2002, until 2020 the oil prices would not exceed $40.1 Three years later the International Energy Outlook 2005 stated that in 2020 the maximum price for crude oil would be around $50.2 And finally, the International Energy Outlook 2007 predicted an $80 price for one barrel of crude oil in 2020.3 The main problem here is not the inadequacy of the predictions for 2020, but the fact that by the beginning of 2008 one barrel of crude oil cost more than $140 and that it is not possible to find any prediction in 2007 that a barrel price would reach this amount in that year (Van den Dobbelsteen et al. 2009b). High oil prices imply higher living costs, such as the expenses for transport or the energy used in houses (Sergeev et al. 2009), yet also indirectly the price of any goods in the market