Understanding buy-in for risky prospects incorporating degree of belief into the ex-ante assessment of support for alternative road pricing schemes

This paper investigates support for road pricing reform within a referendum voting choice model. Central to this is how to identify believable ex-ante support for specific road pricing schemes. Our approach is centred on a referendum voting choice model for alternative road pricing schemes, with information that accounts for the degree of belief of the extent to which such schemes will make voters better or worse off. We find accounting for belief in the benefits results in sizeable reductions in the sensitivity to the levels of the charge, but quite small impacts on the sensitivity to revenue allocation