Predicting High-Power Performance in Professional Cyclists

Purpose: To assess if short-duration (5 to similar to 300 s) high-power performance can accurately be predicted using the anaerobic power reserve (APR) model in professional cyclists. Methods: Data from 4 professional cyclists from a World Tour cycling team were used. Using the maximal aerobic power, sprint peak power output, and an exponential constant describing the decrement in power over time, a power-duration relationship was established for each participant. To test the predictive accuracy of the model, several all-out field trials of different durations were performed by each cyclist. The power output achieved during the all-out trials was compared with the predicted power output by the APR model. Results: The power output predicted by the model showed very large to nearly perfect correlations to the actual power output obtained during the all-out trials for each cyclist (r =.88 +/- .21, .92 +/- .17 +/- .95 +/- .13, and.97 +/- .09). Power output during the all-out trials remained within an average of 6.6% (53 W) of the predicted power output by the model. Conclusions: This preliminary pilot study presents 4 case studies on the applicability of the APR model in professional cyclists using a field-based approach. The decrement in all-out performance during high-intensity exercise seems to conform to a general relationship with a single exponential-decay model describing the decrement in power vs increasing duration. These results are in line with previous studies using the APR model to predict performance during brief all-out trials. Future research should evaluate the APR model with a larger sample size of elite cyclists.