Admission Criteria as Predictors of Student Success

Objective: Evaluate impact of various admission criteria elements (cognitive, behavioral) as predictors of first-term college GPA and on-time graduation. Methods & Results: Predictive models were developed to examine if the current admission criteria: high school GPA (HSGPA), ACT Composite score, interview score, etc are significant predictors for student success defined as first-term college GPA, on-time graduation among PharmD students at a direct entry private university. The study sample consisted of 395 pharmacy students matriculated as first-time freshmen students during fall 2007 through fall 2009. Results from the hierarchical linear regression analysis indicated that both HSGPA and ACT Composite score were significant predictors for first-term college GPA. After taking into account relevant demographic factors, the final model explained 22% of the total variance in first-term college GPA, with HSGPA accounting for 18% of the total variance and ACT Composite score accounting for only 3%. For predicting on-time graduation using the logistic regression method, HSGPA alone was the significant predictor while the model had no substantial impact on predicting on-time graduation (4% of the total variance). Further study is needed to develop a more comprehensive model involving behavioral or psychosocial factors impacting student success outcomes. Implications: This data was used to adjust relative weight of HSGPA and standardized tests scores in the application evaluation rubric. It is also being used to allocate student services resources for student retention initiatives