Predicting university performance

University admissions in Australia are dictated primarily by entrance ranking scores (TER) based on all courses taken in secondary school. However, these are unreliable indicators of ability to do mathematically based university courses. Differences in mathematical curricula between Australian states also complicates admissions for students moving interstate, especially with 19 or more different mathematical courses being offered in high schools across Australia. This article compares student TER and performance in a diagnostic test, against their university grade at the end of one semester to find a better predictor than simple TER measures. References E. A. Catchpole and B. R. Anderson, Comparing the performances of NSW and Victorian students in a first-year mathematics course. Austr. New Zealand J. Statist. 40(4), 1998, 389--406. doi:10.1111/1467-842X.00044 A. C. Croft, S. Hibberd, D. A. Lawson, L. R. Mustoe and C. T. Shaw, Engineering mathematics in the UK: SARTOR---a timely opportunity for reform. Engineering Science and education Journal. 2000, 77--87. doi:10.1049/esej:20000205 Engineering Council (UK), Measuring the Mathematics problem, Engineering Council, June 2000. http://www.engc.org.uk/publications/pdf/mathsreport.pdf M. S. Fadali, N. Velasquez--Bryant and M. Robinson, Work in progress---Is attitude toward mathematics an obstacle to engineering education? 4th ASEE/IEEE Frontiers in Education Conference, 19--24, 2004. http://fie.engrng.pitt.edu/fie2004/papers/1090.pdf B. Hassler, R. Atkinson, D. Quinney and M. Barry, The Experience of Fresher Students in Mathematics Diagnostic Testing, MSOR connections, Aug 2004, 4. http://www.atm.damtp.cam.ac.uk/people/bh213/ARDTS/DiagnosticTesting_MSOR_aug04.pdf D. Lawson, Changes in student entry competencies, 1991--2001. Teaching Mathematics and its applications, 22(4), 171--175. doi:10.1093/teamat/22.4.171 Ltsn, MathsTEAM Project, Diagnostic testing for mathematics, http://mathstore.ac.uk/mathsteam/packs/diagnostic_test.pdf MDTP, Mathematics Diagnostic Testing Project, California State University, http://www.math.csusb.edu/mdtp/Home.htm A. Miller, J. Bradbury and D. Middleman, Diagnostic testing, Mount Allison University, USA. http://mathcs.mta.ca/demo1.htm I. E. Otung, Reassessing the mathematics content of engineering education. Engineering Science and education journal, 2001, 130--138. doi:10.1049/esej:20010401 F. Barrington and P. Brown, Comparison of Year 12 pre-tertiary mathematics subjects in Australia 2004--2005. Australian Mathematics Science Institute, 2005. http://www.ice-em.org.au/images/stories/FileDownloads/Comparison_of_Year_12_Pre-tertiary_Mathematics_Subjects_in_Australia_2004-2005.pdf J. Ridd, Participation in Physics and rigorous mathematics and a consideration of educational, economic and political influences. PhD Thesis, James Cook University, 2003. J. Ridd, Year 9 and 10 structures in Queensland and possible implications for subsequent studies in Mathematics and Physics. The Physicist, 37(3), 94--98, 2000. P. Ridd, Physics will add up only with maths. The Australian, July 19, 2006. p.32. K. L. Todd, An historical study of the correlation between GCE Advanced level grades and the subsequent academic performance of well qualified students in a university engineering department. Mathematics Today, 37(5), 2001. F. Barrington, Participation in Year 12 mathematics across Australia 1994--2005. ICE-EM Publications in Education No 2, Australian Mathematics Science Institute, 2006. http://www.ice-em.com.au/pdfs/Participation_in_Yr12_Maths.pdf S. I. Barry and S. Davis, Essential mathematical skills for undergraduate students. Int. J. of Math. Education in Science and Technology, 30, 499--512, 1999. S. I. Barry and S. Davis, Essential Mathematics Skills, UNSW Press, Australia, 2002