Challenges of Forecasting Physician Workforce Needs Amid Delivery System Transformation

As population growth and the aging of the overall population increase demand for health care, policymakers and analysts grapple with whether sufficient health care providers, particularly physicians, will be available to meet that demand. Some argue there are too few physicians already; others say our current supply-demand problems lie with efficiency. But suppose both are correct? Perhaps the real challenge is to understand how the provision of health care services is changing in response to market forces such as payment changes, patients\u27 expectations, provider distributions, and technology innovations. This issue brief revisits what is known about evolving practice organizations, professional mixes, information technology support, and the implications of these and other factors for physician workforce policies