An application of the Delphi method of forecasting to the future of technology infrastructure in West Virginia high schools

This study investigated the technology infrastructures that will have an impact on school systems in West Virginia that desire to either retrofit existing high school structures or construct new ones. A three round modified Delphi technique was used to determine the life expectancy and affordability of each technology infrastructure.;In Round 1, surveys were sent via E-mail to 21 individuals representing public education in West Virginia at all levels, colleges and universities, technology business executives, an architect, and a foreign technology business executive. In response to the first survey, the expert panel generated a total of twenty-one different technology infrastructures that they felt could be incorporated in the building of a new high school or the retrofitting of an existing structure. In Round 2 the experts were asked the rate the life expectancy of each infrastructure on a 5-point Likert-like scale. The scale began with 0--5 years and ended with beyond 20 years. Affordability was also ranked this time on a 6-point Likert-like scale. This scale went from beyond budget to cost effective. Eighteen of the twenty-one responded to Round 2 and Round 3. In Round 3 each panelist was sent via E-mail a copy of the Round 2 results for which the author had determined consensus. They were also given a copy of their responses and asked to either agree with the consensus or submit a reason for their original response.;A scenario was developed using time frames with comparison of Round 2 and Round 3 responses as well as responses divided by educators and business individuals. A discussion of the life expectancy compared to the affordability resulted in conclusions about which technology infrastructures were suitable to be considered by school systems.;Five categories were used to group the individual technology infrastructures for further analysis (1) Equipment; (2) Networks; (3) Support; (4) Communications; (5) Software. The percent return of surveys was 84% in Round 1, 85.7% in Round 2 and 100% in Round 3. A total of 72% of the original selected panelists participated in the entire study. This rate of return indicated that though the individuals were involved people they were interested in education and technology in the future.;The main result of the study, although somewhat surprising, was that the technology infrastructure that was most affordable and had the longest life expectancy was staff development . Both business and education panelists agreed with this conclusion strongly. They seem to be saying that all the technology you can implement into your program depends upon the training of people for success. The support category, including Staff Development, Help Desks, and Maintenance Contracts, by far was considered the most important. Secondary conclusions were that technology infrastructures would not change in the immediate future and were considered to be affordable