Technology foresight for software technology in Turkey

Tüm gelişmekte olan ülkeler gibi Türkiye de ekonomik gelişme ve toplumsal refahı için dijita  uçurumdan kaynaklanan olumsuzlukları gidermek, bilgi devrimine yetişmek, teknopolitik yetkinliklerini geliştirerek bilgi teknolojileri kapsamında, özellikle inovasyon yapısında fiziksel yatırım gerektirmeyen, dinamik, özgün yapısı ile bir fırsat penceresi açan yazılım teknolojisin  üretmek zorundadır. Yazılımda teknolojik yenilik kabiliyetinin geliştirilmesi, doğru bilim teknoloji politikalarının/ stratejilerinin belirlenmesi ve uygulanmasına bağlıdır. Bu politika ve stratejilerin oluşturulma sürecinde doğru, etkin girdilere ihtiyaç vardır. Bu girdiler, ancak başarılı, etkin, doğru kapsamda (ulusal, sektörel, mikro düzeyde), doğru alanlarda (kritik teknolojilerde), tutarlı, uygulanabilir, sonuç veren metotlarla, doğru katılımcılarla gerçekleştirilen teknoloji öngörüleri ile mümkündür. Bu kavramsal çerçeve içinde, çalışmanın temel amacı; yazılım teknolojisinde, ulusal / sektörel teknoloji politikalarının ve firma stratejilerinin oluşturulma sürecine katkı sağlayan bir teknoloji öngörüsü yaparak, ülkemizin yazılım teknolojisi alanında yenilik üretme yeteneği kazanmasına katkıda bulunmaktır. Bu amaçla, teknoloji üretme ve inovasyon yeteneğinin ekonomik gelişme ile toplumsal refaha etkileri, bu etkileri biçimlendiren ulusal bilim teknoloji politikaları, teknoloji öngörüsü yöntemleri, uygulamaları, yazılım teknolojisi, yazılım sektörü incelenmiştir. Uygulamada, Delphi anketi ile öngörüler, bu öngörülerle senaryolar oluşturulmuş, Türkiye için SWOT analizi uygulanmış; bunlar ışığında politika önerileri oluşturulmuştur. Türkiye’nin bu teknolojide yetkinleşmesiyle ilgili, büyük bölümü teknolojiden çok sosyal, politik ve sektörel sorunlara bağlı zorlukları vardır. Ancak bunların iyi bir yönetişim, ulusal mutabakat ve özgün politikaların istikrarlı uygulanması ile aşılması mümkündür. Anahtar Kelimeler: Teknoloji öngörüsü, yazılım, delphi, senaryo planlama, teknoloji politikası.R&D/innovation performance is one of the variables used in the measurement of the potential for technological catching-up of a developing country. As the structuralist economists emphasize, it is important for economic development to design and implement "effective, applicable and suitable" science and technology policies and strategies that is possible only through achieving technological capacity and effective innovation systems. The successful S&T policies, on the other hand, has to depend on the outputs of "scientific, reliable and vision setting" future studies (like foresighting and scenario planning) especially on "critical technologies", not only on national level but also "on sectoral/specified technology" levels. Although far from shaping the future, developing countries focus on technology foresight activities not only to design effective S&T policies, but also to learn to see, think about and understand the future through determining multiple and mutable dynamics of change. Technology Foresight is, thus perceived also as a tool to ensure industrial competitiveness which developing countries try to achieve. Foresighting involves envisioning and testing a range of possible future scenarios, back-casting to present day, and mapping out the steps needed to achieve the preferred scenario. The systematic and structured nature of the Technology Foresight is its key to effectiveness and success. Foresight practice itself is already a social development tool, connecting stakeholders from different backgrounds, institutions and disciplines, forming a synergic knowledge base, encouraging future thinking and hands on training on future research. It forms a climate for systematic thinking which most developing countries do not practice. Foresighting, however, is a complicated and evolutionary process, that makes it difficult to understand and implement for new comers developing countries that feel the stress of catching up with developed economies. Long lists of critical technologies can hardly be a realistic input for developing countries' policy makers. Thus, the main challenge is to realistically set the priorities and to decide on the critical technology which can generate competitive advantage through effectively utilizing the country's limited resources. Software technology requiring relatively less infrastructure/investment, and hence providing an opportunity for developing countries is a typical example of critical techology. In this conceptual framework, we conducted a specific technology foresight research in Turkey for software which is a enabling, key technology. Aim of the study is to provide inputs to national and sectoral policy makers for design and formulation of effective, applicable and progressive technology policies. The basic mission is to contribute to the knowledge of how to generate technological capacity progress. Delphi surveys and scenario planning methods were used for determining and looking into the future of the interrelated factors influencing the technology. We included participants from different "focal points" like open source followers/TNC's, methodological coders/extreme programmers etc. shaping "alternative futures". Statistical and normative techniques was used to summarize, analyze and consolidate the results of Delphi surveys. ("software technology" itself had been an critical research tool as well) This study also provided us important information about the challenges of foresighting in a developing country. SWOT analysis is proved to be useful for identifying the relevant scope of competitiveness. Therefore, based on the outputs of delphi questionnaire, SWOT analysis is applied on the innovation capability of Turkey for software technology. This analysis showed that Turkey has a few strengths but a long list of weaknesses and threats. However, Opportunities are promising. To overcome these weaknesses, to use its strengths effectively, and to transform opportunities to strengths, effective and applicable policy formulation and implementation is critically important. Therefore a detailed technology policy outline is recommended in the final chapter. In this policy outline, leadership and effectivity based restructuring of government and its bodies, academic institutions and sectoral organisations are strongly emphasized. Also acceptance of open source code philosophy as a national choice, development and diffusion of open source code national operating system and supporting software developer communities which take part in evolution of software technology as an inovator party are important policy components. We expect this work will achieve its mission when the outputs are used as a policy tool by policy makers who are trying to shape an progressive roadmap leading to economical independency and social welfare. Keywords: Technology foresight, software, Delphi, scenario planning, technology policy